Seasonal Landfall Forecasts

 

     

    US Atlantic

    atlantic_hurricanes

     

    Mexico/CentAm

    pac_atl_hurricanes

     

    NW Pacific

    pacific_typhoons

     

    Philippines

    philippine_typhoons

 


Accuracy

Select by region.

 

US Atlantic

Mexico/CentAm

NW Pacific

Philippines

 


History

Select any row by year to expand.

2000
US Atlantic

2000_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2001
US Atlantic

2001_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2002
US Atlantic

2002_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2003
US Atlantic

2003_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2004
US Atlantic

3 2004_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2005
US Atlantic

2005_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2006
US Atlantic

2006_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2007
US Atlantic

2007_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2008
US Atlantic

2008_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2008
NW Pacific

2008_pacific_typhoons_with_score

2009
US Atlantic

2009_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2009
NW Pacific

2009_pacific_typhoons_with_score

2010
US Atlantic

2010_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2010
NW Pacific

2010_pacific_typhoons_with_score

2011
US Atlantic

2011_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2011
NW Pacific

2011_pacific_typhoons_with_score

2012
US Atlantic

2012_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2012
Mexico/CentAm

2012_pac_atl_hurricanes_with_score

2012
NW Pacific

2012_pacific_typhoons_with_score

2013
US Atlantic

2013_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2013
Mexico/CentAm

2013_pac_atl_hurricanes_with_score

2013
NW Pacific

2013_pacific_typhoons_with_score

2013
Phillippines

2013_philippine_typhoons_with_score

2014
US Atlantic

2014_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2014
Mexico/CentAm

2014_pac_atl_hurrricanes_with_score

2014
NW Pacific

2014_pacific_typhoons_with_score

2014
Phillippines

2014_philippine_typhoons_with_score

2015
US Atlantic

2015_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2015
Mexico/CentAm

2015_pac_atl_hurricanes_with_score

2015
NW Pacific

2015_pacific_typhoons_with_score

2015
Philippines

2015_philippine_typhoons_with_score

2016
US Atlantic

2016_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2016
Mexico/CentAm

2016_pac_atl_hurricanes_with_score

2016
NW Pacific

2016_pacific_typhoons_with_score

2016
Philippines

2016_philippine_typhoons_with_score

 


About


About Dale Link and Tropical Cyclone Landfalls

Dale Link was born in West Palm Beach, Florida.  His first memory  at the age of two was awakening in the middle of the night to a howling wind, very black sky and rain hitting his face right after a category 4 hurricane had ripped off the roof of his house.  He had 7 tropical cyclones pass over his head before his fifth birthday.

Education: B.S. Engineering North Carolina State University

Dale started predicting long-range weather three months in advance with an almanac and a vegetable garden while working as a corporate engineer in Charlotte, NC.  Five years later he was studying and predicting long-range weather one year in advance in Wilmington, NC.  In another five years in Nags Head, NC, before hurricane season, he was studying and predicting landfalls for the U.S. Atlantic coastline from Virginia Beach, VA, to Miami Beach, FL.  Hurricane Gloria (category 4) landed in his first personal prediction of a landfall zone in 1985.  Hurricane Hugo (category 5) was his second in 1989.  He missed Hurricane Charley (category 1) in 1986.

After contracting Chronic Fatigue Syndrome and moving to West Palm Beach, FL in 1986, he returned to forecasting for the entire Atlantic coastline from Key West, FL, to Lubec, Maine – an 1,800 mile range in 1995.  His prediction that year was a successful ‘zero hurricane landfalls’ forecast.  In 1998, he started predicting landfall zones in the Gulf of Mexico coastline from Brownsville, Texas, to Key West, FL – a 1,500 mile range.  Hurricanes Earl (category 1) and Georges (category 4) landed in his predicted zone that year.  

Then in 2008 he started predicting landfall zones along the Eastern Asian coastline (NW Pacific) from Nam Can, Vietnam, to Nem Uro, Japan (5,500 mile range).  This coastline includes Vietnam, China, Taiwan, North and South Korea, and Japan.  In 2012 he started predicting landfall zones along the Mexican, Central American and Hawaiian Island coastlines:  the East Pacific from Tijuana, Mexico, to Jaque, Panama plus the Hawaiian Islands (5,000 mile range) and the Atlantic (Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico) from Zapzurro, Panama, to Matamoros, Mexico (3,000 mile range).  These coastlines include the Hawaiian Islands, Mexico, Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.  In 2013 he started predicting the Philippines coastline (NW Pacific) from Tandalola to Sana Ana, Philippines (1,500 mile range).  This coastline has the most category 1-5 strength landfalls per linear mile per year.

These four regions (U.S., Mexico/CA, E. Asia and Philippines) consist of 16 countries, 18,000 miles of coastline and 1.1 billion people (15% of the world population).  If you remove the close calls and oversights, these regions are consistent in the number of category 1-5 storms that pass thru his zones, about a 90 percent average (actual is about 77 percent).  What is not consistent is how often category 1-5 storms pass through zones.  In Mexico/CA Atlantic, it is about 25 percent of the time; in U.S. Atlantic and Mexico/CA Pacific, 50 percent; E. Asia NW Pacific 73 percent; and the Philippines NW Pacific 80 percent.  The greater the number of storms in an area, the more often category 1-5 storms pass through zones.