Seasonal Landfall Forecasts

 

     

    US Atlantic

    atlantic_hurricanes

     

    Mexico/CentAm

    pac_atl_hurricanes

     

    NW Pacific

    pacific_typhoons

     

    Philippines

    philippine_typhoons

 


Accuracy

Select by region.

 

US Atlantic

Mexico/CentAm

NW Pacific

Philippines

 


History

Select any row by year to expand.

2000
US Atlantic

2000_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2001
US Atlantic

2001_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2002
US Atlantic

2002_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2003
US Atlantic

2003_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2004
US Atlantic

3 2004_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2005
US Atlantic

2005_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2006
US Atlantic

2006_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2007
US Atlantic

2007_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2008
US Atlantic

2008_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2008
NW Pacific

2008_pacific_typhoons_with_score

2009
US Atlantic

2009_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2009
NW Pacific

2009_pacific_typhoons_with_score

2010
US Atlantic

2010_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2010
NW Pacific

2010_pacific_typhoons_with_score

2011
US Atlantic

2011_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2011
NW Pacific

2011_pacific_typhoons_with_score

2012
US Atlantic

2012_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2012
Mexico/CentAm

2012_pac_atl_hurricanes_with_score

2012
NW Pacific

2012_pacific_typhoons_with_score

2013
US Atlantic

2013_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2013
Mexico/CentAm

2013_pac_atl_hurricanes_with_score

2013
NW Pacific

2013_pacific_typhoons_with_score

2013
Phillippines

2013_philippine_typhoons_with_score

2014
US Atlantic

2014_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2014
Mexico/CentAm

2014_pac_atl_hurricanes_with_score

2014
NW Pacific

2014_pacific_typhoons_with_score

2014
Phillippines

2014_philippine_typhoons_with_score

2015
US Atlantic

2015_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2015
Mexico/CentAm

2015_pac_atl_hurricanes_with_score

2015
NW Pacific

2015_pacific_typhoons_with_score

2015
Philippines

2015_philippine_typhoons_with_score

2016
US Atlantic

2016_atlantic_hurricanes_with_score

2016
Mexico/CentAm

2016_pac_atl_hurricanes_with_score

2016
NW Pacific

2016_pacific_typhoons_with_score

2016
Philippines

2016_philippine_typhoons_with_score

 


About


About Dale Link and Tropical Cyclone Landfalls

Dale Link was born in West Palm Beach, Florida.  His first memory, at the age of two, was awakening in the middle of the night to a howling wind, very black sky, and rain hitting his face right after a category 4 hurricane had ripped off the roof of his family's house.  Before his fifth birthday, seven tropical cyclones passed over his head.

Education: B.S. in engineering, North Carolina State University

As a corporate engineer in Charlotte, NC, Dale approached the planting of a vegetable garden with an engineer's rigor. The advice from an 'old farmer' to use the almanac for the timing of planting, introduced the idea of long range weather forecasting.  Five years later, he was studying and predicting long-range weather one year in advance in Wilmington, NC.  In another five years in Nags Head, NC, before hurricane season, he was studying and predicting hurricane landfalls for the U.S. Atlantic coastline from Virginia Beach, VA, to Miami Beach, FL.  Hurricane Gloria (category 4) landed in his first personal prediction of a landfall zone, in 1985.  Hurricane Hugo (category 5) was his second, in 1989.  He missed Hurricane Charley (category 1) in 1986.

After contracting chronic fatigue syndrome and moving back to West Palm Beach, FL, in 1986, he returned to forecasting the following regions:

---Atlantic coastline from Key West, FL, to Lubec, ME (a 2,000-mile range), in 1995.  His prediction that year was a successful forecast, of zero hurricane landfalls. 

---Gulf of Mexico coastline from Brownsville, Texas, to Key West, FL (a 1,600-mile range), in 1998.  Hurricanes Earl (category 1) and Georges (category 4) landed in his predicted zone that year.  

---Eastern Asian coastline (NW Pacific) from Nam Can, Vietnam, to Nem Uro, Japan (a 5,500-mile range), in 2008.  This coastline includes Vietnam, China, Taiwan, North and South Korea, and Japan.

---Mexican, Central American and Hawaiian Island coastlines, in 2012:  the East Pacific from Tijuana, Mexico, to Jaque, Panama plus the Hawaiian Islands (a 5,000-mile range) and the Atlantic (Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico) from Zapzurro, Panama, to Matamoros, Mexico (a 3,000-mile range).  These coastlines include the Hawaiian Islands, Mexico, Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. 

---Philippines coastline (NW Pacific) from Tandalola to Sana Ana, Philippines (a 1,500-mile range), in 2013.  This coastline has the most category 1-5 strength landfalls per coastline-mile per year.

These four regions---U.S., Mexico/CENTAM, E. Asia, and Philippines---consist of 16 countries, 18,000 miles of coastline, and 1.1 billion people (15% of the world population).  These regions are fairly consistent in the proportion of category 1-5 storms that have passed through Dale's zones: about 77 percent, or, with the close calls and oversights included, about 90 percent.  What is not consistent is how often category 1-5 storms pass through zones.  In Mexico/CENTAM Atlantic, it is about 25 percent of the time; in U.S. Atlantic and Mexico/CENTAM Pacific, 50 percent; in E. Asia NW Pacific, 73 percent; and in the Philippines NW Pacific, 80 percent. The frequency with which typhoon strength storms occur is much higher in the NW Pacific zones of E. Asia and the Philippines, thus the likelihood of a storm passing through those predicted zones is much higher.

On June 1, 2017, Dale published predictions separately for Bermuda and the Bahamas (71% accuracy, 2007-2016), and the Greater Antilles - Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands (80% accuracy, 2000-2016): 2017 Forecast = Zero Hurricane Landfalls. Next year, these predictions will be shown on the 2018 U.S. Forecast.